USDJPY: Off 13-month-old support during short-term downtrend
USDJPY has bounced back from a key support level that’s been in place for 13 months but remains in a short-term downtrend. The pair faces resistance from this old support line, now turned resistance, and the 21-day moving average (SMA).
USDJPY recovery appears unreal…
Although USDJPY is recovering from significant trendline support of around 143.70, indicators like the RSI and MACD suggest a strong bullish trend may not be likely. Additionally, market uncertainty before upcoming Japanese economic data and the US Core PCE Price Index (a key inflation measure) adds to the uncertainty.
Key technical levels to watch…
USDJPY pair’s recovery appears less convincing unless it crosses the 200-SMA hurdle of 151.20. That said, the 21-SMA and the multi-month-old previous support line, respectively near 146.40 and 149.80, quickly followed by the 150.00 threshold, will challenge the buyers before giving them control.
On the contrary, a daily closing beneath the 143.70 trend line support will direct the USDJPY bears toward the late 2023 bottom surrounding 140.45 and the 140.00 psychological magnet. In a case where the prices remain bearish past 140.00, an area comprising levels marked since March 2023, close to 137.90-70, will be the last defense of the buyers.
What next?
USDJPY is at a critical support level. A short-term bounce is possible, but the chance of further declines is higher unless the pair breaks through the 151.20 resistance.
