GBPUSD bulls are pausing at their highest level since February 2020, marking six days of gains despite a slow market atmosphere. That said, the Pound Sterling is facing a liquidity squeeze as we approach key data and events this week, which could impact its upward momentum at these multi-month highs.
Apart from the market’s anxiety ahead of this week’s key catalysts, the overbought RSI (14) line and a 10-week-old ascending resistance line, close to 1.3430 at the latest, suggest consolidation in the GBPUSD prices.
A pullback in GBPUSD seems likely, with key short-term support levels at the 61.8% and 50.0% Fibonacci extensions of the quote’s August-September moves, respectively near 1.3375 and 1.3300. However, the previous monthly high near 1.3265 and the 21-SMA at 1.3190 are important, as they align with the bottom of a bearish wedge pattern near 1.3140, which could act as a final defense for buyers.
On the flip side, for buyers to regain control, they need to break through the 1.3440 resistance. If they succeed, GBPUSD could target the February 2022 peak of around 1.3645 and the 2022 high of 1.3748. A sustained move above 1.3750 could even lead to a challenge of the psychological level at 1.4000.
Technical indicators for GBPUSD suggest a pullback may be on the horizon, even as recent U.S. factors favor ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts throughout 2024. Therefore, key insights from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday and the U.S. Core PCE Price Index— the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—on Friday will be vital for determining the market's direction.
