GBPUSD remains on the back foot while justifying a downside break of a 5.5-month-old rising support line and the 100-SMA. Also keeping the Cable bears hopeful are the bearish MACD signals. However, the nearly oversold RSI conditions suggest limited room towards the south, which in turn highlights the 200-SMA level of around 1.2400 as the key support. It’s worth noting that the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-July fall, close to 1.2470, acts as an immediate check of the sellers while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of near 1.2310, also known as the golden ratio, will challenge the sellers past 200-SMA.
On the contrary, the GBPUSD pair’s corrective bounce needs validation from the 100-SMA hurdle of 1.2645. Following that, a convergence of the 21-SMA and the previous support line from mid-March, surrounding 1.2700, appears a tough nut to crack for the Cable buyers. In a case where the Pound Sterling remains firmer past 1.2700, the gradual upside toward June’s peak of 1.2848 can’t be ruled out.
Overall, GBPUSD appears well set for further downside even if the road towards the south appears bumpy.
