EURUSD licks its wounds at the lowest level in six weeks as the pair traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Also important are the final readings of Germany’s inflation data for May and speeches from a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) officials. In doing so, the Euro pair keeps the week-start fall beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a one-month-old ascending support line, a part of the short-term bullish triangle. Not only the downside break of the key SMA and rejection of the bullish chart pattern but the bearish MACD signals and an absence of the oversold RSI (14) also keep the pair sellers hopeful. The same highlights February’s low of around 1.0695 as immediate support to watch during the quote’s fresh downside. Following that, an upward-sloping trend line from October 2023 near 1.0650 will act as the final defense of the buyers. In a case where the pair remains bearish past 1.0650, it becomes vulnerable to refresh the yearly low, currently around the 1.0600 threshold.
On the contrary, softer US inflation and the Fed’s inability to convince the policy hawks despite avoiding the looming rate cut can trigger the EURUSD pair’s recovery. In that case, a convergence of the 200-SMA and support-turned-resistance line around 1.0790 will be in the spotlight. Should the Euro buyers manage to provide a daily closing beyond the 1.0790 hurdle, as well as cross the 1.0800 round figure, the 50% Fibonacci ratio of its July-October 2023 decline, around 1.0865, and then to a five-month-old descending resistance line, near 1.0915, can’t be ruled out. It should be observed, however, that the buyers will face heavy resistance past 1.0915 as the aforementioned triangle’s top line of 1.0920 will precede the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio near 1.0960 and an 11-month-old falling trend line surrounding 1.1010 to restrict the further upside.
Overall, EURUSD remains on the bear’s radar beneath 1.1010 while 1.0790 acts as an immediate key upside hurdle.
